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But China poses a bigger question - if it decides to slow credit growth to keep a lid on inflation, this will hinder commodity prices. "China is a big importer of most commodities," said Spencer. "That could offset potential price rises in industrial metals and energies. It's not a straight line."
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In the northeast, Kurdish flags now flutter proudly over buildings after the country's largest minority carved out a once unthinkable degree of independence. Kurds, who make up more than 10 percent of Syria's 22 million people, were long oppressed under Baathist rule. Now, they have created their own police forces, even their own license plates, and have been exuberantly going public with their language and culture. Schoolchildren are now taught Kurdish, something banned for years under the Assad family's rule.